砺境·力进 — 中国房地产市场年度展望,2019

2019-01-28 15:55:20 来源: 第一太平戴维斯
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第一太平戴维斯近期发布2019年度中国房地产市场展望。在宏观经济形势更显严峻的背景下,探讨市场关注的几大热点话题,并对11个主要城市的热点细分市场加以回顾与展望。

甲级写字楼市场:广州、成都向好,但多数城市压力攀升

11座城市在2018年的写字楼供应合计同比下降37%,市场稍有喘息以消化存量,平均空置率同比下降2.3个百分点。

截至2018年末,11座城市中仅北京及广州空置率低于10%,分别为7.0%及4.3%,也是仅有的租金增幅超过10%的两座城市。但相较北京,广州租赁需求基本面更为理想,空置率水平为近十年最低值。在宏观经济整体面临较大挑战的背景下,广州凭借相对较低的租金水平和成熟的营商配套环境,展示了较强的企业吸引力。

七座二线城市中,南京市场近两年始终空置率最低,但这主要来源于有限的市场供应(最近两年新增供应合计12万平方米左右),而需求支撑相对欠缺,2018年吸纳表现仅为中西部同级城市成都的11%。而成都空置率在2018年末虽仍高达21.0%,但连续四年下降,已与二线城市均值(20.2%)非常接近。预计2019年成都写字楼市场仍将维持较理想的上升势头。

受经济环境及新增供应影响,预计2019年市场表现将弱于2018年。11座城市的甲级写字楼市场总供应2018年增长一倍,市场供应压力难以消解。预计除杭州市场由于自用型项目入市减小租赁压力外,所有城市的甲级写字楼空置率均将有所上升。

此外,随着更多办公楼面被“联合办公化”“办公空间即服务(Waas)”的概念带给写字楼市场的影响或将比此前预期更加深远、广泛和持久。企业社会正在加速变化,市场不断涌现新的产业及商机,老旧产业被迫重组整合,不确定气氛浓郁。租户对办公空间灵活性的要求将越来越高。

1:优质写字楼供应,2019年


来源:第一太平戴维斯研究部

1:优质写字楼市场租金及空置率预测,2019年


来源:第一太平戴维斯研究部

零售市场:整体租金走势稳健,优质项目加速市场洗牌

与写字楼市场类似,11座城市在2018年的零售商业供应合计同比下降27%,平均空置率同比下降1.0个百分点。

11座城市中,除重庆和天津外的九座城市零售商业空置率均低于10%,且多数空置率同比小幅下降;同比租金亦有1.8%的平均增幅。但零售市场看似波澜不惊的数据背后,部分掩饰了近年大量优质项目持续入市,竞争加剧,导致弱势项目加速淘汰、市场结构重塑的局面。

深圳及西安市场空置率最低,仅为1.2%及3.8%。虽然西安在2018年全年供应高达122.8万平方米,是唯一一座超过100万平方米供应的城市,但由于多数项目品质极高、入驻表现出色,对市场更多起到正面影响。

预计2019年11座城市的零售商业总供应将同比增加19%,其中上海及武汉都将有超过100万平方米商业面积入市,且到2020年上海将再次迎来100万平方米左右的供应。

在居民收入持续上涨、固定投资回报渐微的背景下,消费市场仍是引领中国步入经济增长新时代的希望。中国家庭消费支出约占GDP的35-40%,落后于50-70%的国际主流水平。然而住房贷款近两年迅速增长,导致家庭债务负担增加,加之经济增速趋缓,预计将影响消费信心

新机遇也在不断涌现,本土品牌层出不穷,迎合不断变化的消费需求。从层出不穷的精品咖啡到电子产品,创新的商业模式填补了市场空缺,让消费者能以更亲民的价格享受品质提升

2:优质购物中心供应,2019年


来源:第一太平戴维斯研究部

2:优质购物中心租金及空置率预测,2019年


来源:第一太平戴维斯研究部

住宅市场:稳价格稳预期

近年来中国一直以“降温调控”为房市主基调,力求降低经济增长对住房市场的依赖。限购限贷、严控预售证和售价、土地调控收紧等都已成为耳熟能详的常规政策手段。政策的初衷在于抑制房价上涨,从而缓解甚至减轻购房压力,同时亦要避免房价暴跌式调整,以免造成家庭财富严重缩水。在房价涨势得到控制的同时,成交行情亦需得以延续。如此开发商才能回笼资金,抑或偿还贷款,抑或进行再投资,推动经济及就业继续增长。

租赁市场的发展显著提速。政府希望通过发展租赁市场减轻民众住房负担,提升人口流动性;鼓励个人投资股市或创业继而提振实体经济;创造就业机会,盘活存量资产。随着租赁市场逐渐成熟,未来或向多元化、专业化方向发展,进一步细分领域以服务于不同群体。预计2019年,稳价格稳预期成为住宅市场主基调,租赁市场能否再有突破值得关注。

Headwinds and opportunities —— China property market outlook 2019

Savills recently published “China Property Market Outlook: 2019”. The report discussed the key trends in the real estate market and analyses the main asset classes of 11 leading Chinese cities.

Grade A office: Guangzhou and Chengdu look to be in a better position, while most others are faced with growing pressure

The total Grade A office supply of the 11 cities tracked in this report fell by 37% YoY in 2018 with excess stock being gradually absorbed resulting in average vacancy rates falling 2.3 ppts YoY.

Among the eleven cities, only Beijing and Guangzhou recorded vacancy rates below 10% by the end of 2018, at 7.0% and 4.3%, respectively. Guangzhou vacancy rates are now at its lowest level in over a decade. Despite economic challenges, Guangzhou has demonstrated strong corporate appeal thanks to its comparatively low rents and maturing business environment.

Among the seven?second tier cities, Nanjing has maintained the lowest vacancy rate over the last two years. Nevertheless, this might be more a factor of limited supply (120,000 sq m over two years) than strong demand, with Nanjing’s net take-up only 11% of Chengdu’s. While Chengdu’s vacancy rate remains relatively high at 21.0%, it has been falling for four years and is now very close to the average of other second tier cities (20.2%). Confidence remains high for another strong year in 2019.

A slowing economy and rising supply will mean that 2019 will be another challenging year. Supply for the eleven cities is expected to more than double in 2019, and almost all cities are forecasting rising vacancy rates—with the exception of Hangzhou—as a number of projects are likely to be for self-use.

With more established operators adopting more flexible spaces, the impact of Workspace-as-a-Service (WaaS) is likely to be more profound, broader and longer-lasting than previously envisaged. The adoption of WaaS comes at a time when economic growth is slowing but the pace of change in the corporate world is accelerating. In these times of dynamism and uncertainty, to tie a corporate to a long-term lease with only limited opportunities for expansion or contraction of headcount would be nonsensical.

Chart 1: Grade A office supply forecast, 2019


Source: Savills Research

Table 1: Grade A office rent and vacancy forecast, 2019


Source: Savills Research

Retail: Overall rent remain stable as low-preforming projects continued to be expelled from the market

Similar to the office market, retail supply of the 11 cities included in the report saw a decrease of 27% YoY, with average vacancy rate falling 1.0 ppt YoY.

Nine cities saw their vacancy rates fall below 10% with most recording a decline in rates year-on-year. However, the headline figure disguises the fact that a number of underperforming projects have been driven out of the retail market as a result of the increasingly competitive environment in which only quality projects can survive.

Shenzhen and Xi’an recorded the lowest vacancy rates on the mainland at 1.2% and 3.8% respectively. Despite of receiving 1.2 million sqm of supply in 2018, which is highest among all cities, Xi’an witnessed one of the lowest vacancy rates as the majority of the new supply is of international standard, bringing a significant boost to the local market.

Retail supply for the eleven cities is expected to increase by 19% YoY in 2019 with Shanghai and Wuhan receiving the most, with over 1.0 million sqm retail space coming to both markets. Shanghai is also expected to receive another bumper crop in 2020 of around 1.0 million sqm.

As wages continue to rise and returns on fixed investment diminish, it was hoped that the consumer market would usher in a new era of economic growth for China, moving towards more international norms where household consumption accounts for roughly 50-70% of the economy from its current level of 35-40%. However, as housing prices increase, and debt servicing takes up an increasing amount of households’ disposable income, this limits households’ ability to consume products and services.

Despite slowing retail sales growth rates, new opportunities continue to emerge, and domestic brands are meeting changing consumer needs, especially in the affordable range with the likes of many specialty coffee brands and electronic brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi. New business models are created that offer comparable quality to existing brands but with significant cost saving.

Chart 1: Retail supply forecast, 2019


Source: Savills Research

Table 2: Retail rent and vacancy forecast, 2019


Source: Savills Research

Residential: Stabilising price and rational expectation

China has been trying to cool the market and wean itself off its reliance on the residential property market in recent years. This comes with the now standard range of policy tools including restricting mortgage availability, house purchase restrictions, control over pre-sale permit pricing and tightening up land auction processes and requirements. The hope is to cool price appreciation and therefore maintain or improve housing affordability as incomes continue to rise while avoiding a price correction which would see household wealth shrink. While price appreciation is controlled, transaction volumes are still supported to enable developers to monetise their investments and either pay down debt or reinvest and generate continued economic growth and employment.

The latest iteration of property cooling measures has taken an extra twist with the support of the development of the residential leasing market, which, while started in 2016, gained significant momentum in 2018. The leasing market is expected to improve the supply of affordable housing, increase mobility and encourage individuals to invest in alternative asset classes which contribute to the real economy—like equity markets or business start-ups—and, at the same time, create employment and make more efficient use and absorb current vacant residential stock. As the leasing market matures, there is the potential for a more diverse, multifaceted leasing market that caters to specific communities such as student housing or senior housing. 2019 is expected to see another year of stabilisation in the sales market and a consolidation of the leasing market.

林琦莉 本文来源:第一太平戴维斯 责任编辑:林琦莉_HN05
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